Betting Guides
Introduction
Sports Betting is everywhere, it’s on TV advertisements during football matches, sponsors on football shirts and more importantly, available at your fingertips since the invention of smart phones. Now more than ever, sports betting is much more accessible, the choices for sports betting are extraordinary which has given the opportunity for anyone over the age of eighteen to sign up to an on-line bookmaker in matter of minutes and make a bet.
With all the choice and markets available, there is a tendency for people to make spur of the moment bets without any research or thought which will result in 98% of bets losing money which is why I have provided guides and tips to help people not to lose money on random bets or trades and hopefully make some money instead over the long term by following these key principles:
- Having strategies in place which you can learn and then follow, researching the trades before placing.
- Having good bankroll management to limit how much you bet at anyone one time and most importantly tracking your profit and loss.
- Have some fun at the same time and not feeling the stress of losing a bet or having losses at the end of month which is all part of the sports betting and trading. Betting and trading will never guarantee profits each month but over the long term the aim is to profit on monthly basis and then increasing your bankroll.
At this point I must highlight the fact that gambling addiction is a serious issue and an illness for many people across the country and can lead to debt, stress and in extreme cases suicide. According to the latest Public Health England report on gambling, 0.5% of the population (approximately 246,000 people) are problem gamblers, and 3.8% (2.2 million people) are ‘at-risk’ gamblers.
In the UK, one in three have attempted suicide and more than 400 gambling related suicides a year in England. With such shocking statistics which continue to increase it is important to understand the help which is available and what more can be done to help those who may be struggling. If you feel that you are struggling with gambling addiction then please take the steps to stop gambling and seek help and would recommend not continuing with this website. There are links available in the footer section of this website to assist in gambling addiction.
My main goal of this website is to give a foundation to beginners who are thinking of starting their betting or trading journey and educate people who have made bets in the past whom have lost money on non-researched bets which have had 1% chance of winning or for people who are chasing losses in the past which normally results in losing more money. You have noticed I use the words ‘betting’ and ‘trading’ in the same sentence. Online sports betting and sports trading is growing rapidly and even though betting has been around for decades, trading is relatively new.
Lessons and Tips
- Lack of Knowledge: Insufficient understanding of the sport, teams, players, or betting markets can lead to poor decision-making and unsuccessful bets. Most bettors lose money due to a lack of experience, not understanding the market they are betting on and not doing the adequate research on leagues, teams and players. Here’s some simple tips for starters:
- Have you checked the line-ups before kick off?
- Are any key players missing due to suspension?
- Is the team you are betting on fielding a strong team as they be playing a champions league fixture game in a few days time and resting key players?
- Emotional Decision-Making: Allowing emotions, such as excitement, frustration, or overconfidence, to drive betting decisions can lead to impulsive choices that aren’t based on rational analysis. Being biased towards your favourite team is not always the best strategy unless you have the done the research to back it up!
- Chasing Losses: Trying to recoup previous losses by placing larger or riskier bets can lead to a cycle of increasing losses rather than recovery.
- Poor Bankroll Management: Not having a well-defined budget or not sticking to proper bankroll management strategies can lead to overspending and higher losses.
- Unrealistic Expectations: Believing in “sure things” or guaranteed wins can result in disregarding the inherent uncertainty of sports outcomes and making ill-advised bets.
- Ignoring Research: Failing to conduct thorough research, analyze statistics, and consider relevant information can lead to misguided bets.
- Betting on Favorites: Placing bets solely on favorites or popular teams without assessing the odds or the potential for upset can result in losses due to unfavorable odds.
- Neglecting Value Bets: Overlooking bets that offer good value and focusing solely on high-profile matches can lead to missed opportunities for profitable bets.
- Impulsive Betting: Placing bets without careful consideration of the odds, probabilities, and potential outcomes can result in poor choices.
- Lack of Discipline: Not setting limits, changing strategies frequently, or deviating from a well-thought-out plan can contribute to losses.
- Misunderstanding Odds: Misinterpreting odds formats and not understanding their implications can lead to misjudging the potential payouts and risks.
- Overestimating Expertise: Overestimating one’s ability to predict outcomes accurately can lead to overconfidence and poor betting decisions.
- Ignoring Variance: Variability in sports outcomes is inevitable, and even well-analyzed bets can result in losses due to the inherent unpredictability of sports.
- Relying on Tips and Touts: Blindly following tips from unreliable sources or “touts” without conducting independent research can lead to losses.
- Betting While Intoxicated: After a night out, it’s common to find yourself reaching for your smartphones and feeling the urge to engage in some betting, be it on football or in casinos. This is often accompanied by a sense of invincibility where losses seem unlikely. It’s strongly advised to refrain from accessing your betting accounts if you’ve had a few drinks. Chances are high that you might experience losses and disregard the fundamental principles mentioned earlier.
- Never bet on friendlies: Pre-season club or international friendlies should be avoided as the teams are under cooked and still finding their match fitness and the team line ups are usually a mix of youth and experience. Even if the team starts with a strong line up, teams tend to make numerous changes after half time, sometimes changing the whole team at half team
To mitigate these common reasons for betting losses, it’s important to approach sports betting with careful consideration, informed decision-making, proper research, realistic expectations, and disciplined bankroll management. Responsible gambling practices and a focus on long-term success rather than short-term gains can contribute to a more enjoyable and potentially profitable betting experience.
Percentage of Bankroll
The golden rule for determining the percentage of your bankroll for each bet is:
Never bet more than 1%-2% of your current bankroll on one single bet.
For example, if your bank roll is £100, each bet should be no more than £1 – £2, likewise, if your bankroll is £1000, each bet should be no more than £10-£20. As bankroll increases, your stake will also increase and this should allow your bankroll to grow.
For example, using a high bankroll of £1000 for illustration purposes only:
Month 1 – Place 5 bets between 1% and 2%
Month 2 – Place 5 bets between 1% and 2% with new bankroll of £1070
Month 3 – Bankroll for Month 3 will now be £1070 + £20.43 = £1090.43.
Note: If you made losses during the month, then you should reduce your bank roll for the next month to ensure your stake is within the 1%-2% otherwise your bankroll will reduce at a higher rate if you experience continuous losses.
For example, in Month 4, if you made a loss of £20, your new bankroll would be £1090.43 – £20 = £1070.43
Note: The starting bankroll of £1000 is for illustration purposes to make the example simple to understand. Your personal bankroll might be £10, £100 or even £500 which is entirely your choice. For beginners, I would recommend starting bankroll of £100 using betting sites which offer free bets so you can start your journey with minimal risk.
You should also spread your bankroll across 3 to 4 bookies to ensure you get the best odds. The most popular bookmakers are Bet365, SkyBet, William Hill and Paddy Power or Betfair which are the same company and the odds tend to be the same. There are 100’s of bookies to choose from so its entirely your choice and which have the best free bet offers.
Point System
Most good tipsters use a point system when sharing betting tips and you as the bettor can decide how much you attribute to each point.
The golden rule for point based bankroll is:
- 1 point = ( £Bankroll / 100 ), For example, if your bankroll is £500, £500/100 = £5 per bet
- 2 points = £5 x 2= £10 per bet
- 3 points = £5 x 3 =£15 per bet
As your bankroll grows, you can then decide to increase the allocation to each point, for example, for a bankroll of £1000, 1 point = £10, 2 points = £20
Fixed odds betting is the most popular amongst bettors and the markets available are ever increasing. For those that are new to betting, lets start with the fundamentals of fixed odds betting.
Types of Odds
There are two types of odds formats which bookmakers offer which are Decimal or Fractional and it will be your personal preference on how you view odds with most bookmakers having the option to display the odds in the format of your choice via the settings options.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are popular in the United Kingdom and many bookmakers will default to this format. For example, odds of 2/1 implies the number on the left hand side of the fraction shows the amount of profit you will make if you stake the amount on the right hand side.. So placing £1 winning bet on a 2/1 price would result in a return of £3 ( £2 profit plus your stake £1 returned)
For example, using a real game in the Premier League between Crystal Palace and Fulham on 26/12/2022. The odds for a Crystal Palace win are 1/1, the odds for a Fulham win are 13/5 and the draw is 12/5.
The result was Crystal Palace – 0 , Fulham – 3 which is a Fulham win and profit of £2.60
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are popular around the world and probably easier to understand. Simple conversion of fixed odds to decimal using the example of 13/5 would be (13 divided by 5 = 2.6 ) + 1 = 3.6 . So for Fulham to win, you will stake £1 at 3.6 odds and the return would be £3.60 which is the profit and original stake return.
This section will highlight the most common bets that bettors choose and we are just skimming the surface on the markets available and will go into further detail in the latter sections.
Full Time Result (1 X 2 )
This is the most common bet where three outcomes are possible, Win, Draw or Loss.
It also known as ‘1 X 2’ with the following description
1 = Home Win
X = Draw
2 = Away Win.
Note: For football matches, this type of bet is for 90 minutes only and doesn’t include extra time or penalties if a cup competition, If you are betting on the outcome of cup game there are alternative markets such as ‘Team To Qualify’ or ‘Lift the Trophy’ which are good alternatives but odds will be less but provide a safety net.
Double Chance (1X X2 12 )
This type of bet is variation to the full time result by combining two results into one which serves as an insurance policy to cover the scenario where a team can win or draw or only 1 team wins.
1X = Home Win or Draw
X2 = Away Win or Draw
12 = Home Win or Away Win
1X and X2 Double chance bets are popular if you are uncertain of the outcome of a match and use the draw to cover the bet but the odds will be lower. If you do decide to back accumulators, then double chance should be considered especially for an away team where the result has some uncertainty.
Using the example of the Crystal Palace vs Fulham match, the odd for Double chance are below:
Total Over / Under Markets
The over and under markets are another popular market bet where you predict the total number of game variables are over or under a value set by the bookmakers. Types of common game variables are Total Goals , Total Corners and Total Cards.
There is also the ‘Asian’ total market for Goals, Corners and Cards which
Total Goals
The total goals bet is the total number of goals scored during the match from both teams which is based on the full time 90 mins score line. You can choose between over the set amount of goals or below.
The most common number of total goal bets are:
- Over 0.5 ( 1 goal or more)
- Over 1.5 ( 2 goals or more)
- Over 2.5 ( 3 goals or more) etc .
- Under 0.5 ( Under 1 goal or 0 zero goals)
- Under 1.5 ( 1 goal or less )
- Under 2.5 ( 2 goals or less.
You can then have variations of total goals by team or by half, e.g., Total goals First Half and Second Half and then broken down by team.
Using a real game example, Ajax v FC Volendam ( 28/01/23) which is predicted to being a high scoring game based on Ajax’s opposition and league positions.
Lets look at the pre-match odds on Bet365 and post-match stats on Flashscore:
The result was 1-1 which resulted in the total number of goal equal to 2.
If you backed over 1.5 goals, £10 would return £10.50. ( 50p Profit )
Looking at the statistics, most would have predicted an Ajax win with more than 2.5 goals and the shots on targets backs that up but a struggling Ajax side failure to finish teams off would have lost many bets.
To summarise, the odds above based on 1 unit stake of £10 would return a small profit if you backed over 0.5 or 1.5 goals. If you backed over 2.5 goals, that would be a loss.
Total Corners ( Over/Under)
The total corner market is the total number of corners won by both teams during a 90 minute match. An average football match usual has 10 to 11 corners on average.
See below for FA Cup tie between Manchester City and Arsenal on 27 January 2023.
The price set by Bet365 for over 10 corners is 2.37 or 11/8. If you back over 10 corners then the total number of corners for a win must be 11 or more. Other bookmakers will price corners for over 10 corners as 11+ which is the same.
See below to show a comparison of prices for the same market for 2 different bookmakers:
This example shows that Bet365 have slightly better odds for the Total Corner market so to get the best value it is always good to ‘shop around’ for the best prices. Looking at the final game statistics, surprisingly, Man City didn’t register one corner and Arsenal registered 3 corners so the final total corner counts was 3. If you backed over 10 corners or 11+ then this bet would have been a loss.
Football spread betting is a type of sports betting that involves placing bets on the predicted outcome of a specific aspect of a football match. Unlike traditional fixed-odds betting, where you simply bet on whether a team will win, lose, or draw, spread betting focuses on the margin by which an outcome occurs. It’s a more dynamic and potentially higher-risk form of betting.
In football spread betting, the bookmaker sets a spread (or range) of possible outcomes for a particular statistic, such as the number of goals scored, corners taken, bookings received, or other performance metrics. Your job as the bettor is to predict whether the actual outcome will be above (buy) or below (sell) the bookmaker’s spread.
Here’s how it works:
- Buy: If you believe the actual outcome will be higher than the bookmaker’s predicted spread, you would place a “buy” bet. You’ll win or lose money based on how much higher the actual outcome is.
- Sell: If you believe the actual outcome will be lower than the bookmaker’s predicted spread, you would place a “sell” bet. You’ll win or lose money based on how much lower the actual outcome is.
The difference between the actual outcome and the bookmaker’s predicted spread determines your winnings or losses. The more accurate your prediction, the more you can win, but the potential losses can also be greater if your prediction is incorrect.
Spread betting is quite flexible and allows you to bet on a wide range of possibilities within a match. It’s important to note that since the outcomes are not fixed odds, your potential losses can exceed your initial stake. Therefore, managing your risk is crucial when engaging in spread betting.
Common markets for football spread betting might include:
- Total Goals: Betting on the total number of goals scored in a match.
- Corners: Betting on the total number of corners taken by both teams.
- Bookings: Betting on the total number of yellow or red cards shown in a match.
- Supremacy: Betting on the goal difference between two teams.
As with any form of betting, it’s essential to understand the rules, potential risks, and rewards of spread betting. Make sure to do your research, understand the market you’re betting on, and only wager what you can afford to lose.
Spread Betting Example
Let’s describe a real scenario of Goal Supremacy trade and the cash out options available during the game.
The match is between Oakleigh Cannons (3rd) and Altona Magic (6th) in the Australia Victoria Premier League.
The pre match spread for goal supremacy is: Oakleigh / Altona 1.55-1.75.
- If you think Oakleigh will win by more than 1.75 goals then a BUY trade is required @1.75 with a stake of £10.
- If you think Oakleigh wont win by more 1.75 goals, then a SELL trade is required @1.55.
Based on the league position and current high scoring form of Oakleigh. I have decided to BUY@1.75 goal supremacy.
Let’s look at the game at the 50 minute mark, the score is 4-0 to Oakleigh! So lets look at the current price. As you can see below, the current spread has now moved to 4.7-4.9 which implies there could be more goals.
At this point you have two options (assuming you are watching the game in play)
- You can cash out and take the profit of £29.50. If Altona Magic scores 1 goal, then your profit will be lower if the game finished 4-1. The final price would be 3 (goal supremacy) so your profit would (3 – 1.75) = 1.25 * £10 = £12.25
- You can stay in the game and hope for more goals. If the game finished 4-0 your profit would (4 – 1.75) = 2.25 * £10 = £22.25
- Lets look at the final result which was 5-0 to Oakleigh. In this example I stayed in the game and final profit was: (5 – 1.75) = 3.25 * £10 = £32.25
To highlight the risk of spread betting, the following table will demonstrate potential outcomes for various score lines:
| Stake | Trade | Final Score | Goal Supremacy | Profit/Loss |
| £10 | Buy@1.75 | 0-0 | 0 | -£17.50 |
| £10 | Buy@1.75 | 0-1 | -1 | -£27.50 |
| £10 | Buy@1.75 | 1-0 | 1 | -£7.50 |
| £10 | Buy@1.75 | 4-0 | 4 | +£22.5 |
| £10 | Buy@1.75 | 5-0 | 5 | +£32.5 |
The above highlights the potential risk in spread betting where losses as well as wins can exceed your stake. To mitigate risk, you can add stop losses to each bet which most sports trading platforms offer.
Sporting Index has a Stop Loss feature which is set to 5. This also means that a win will be capped as well as losses.
Asian football markets, often referred to as Asian handicaps or Asian lines, are a popular type of sports betting primarily used in football (soccer) matches. These markets were developed in Asia as a way to provide more balanced odds and eliminate the possibility of a draw outcome, which is common in traditional 1X2 betting.
Asian handicaps involve giving one team a head start or a deficit before the match starts. This handicap is expressed in goals or fractions of goals. The aim is to even out the playing field by making both possible outcomes (winning for either team) more equally attractive for bettors.
Asian Handicap Result
The table below shows the outcome of various handicap lines for 0. -0.25, +0.25, -0.50, +0.5, -0.75, +0.75. For example Ukraine vs England has various Asian markets. If you selected England at -0.5 with odds of 1.4 (4/10) , then England would need to win by 1 clear goal. A draw would be a loss.
| Handicap | Team result | Bet result | Handicap | Team result | Bet result |
| 0 | Win | Win | 0 | Win | Win |
| Draw | Stake refund | Draw | Stake refund | ||
| Lose | Lose | Lose | Lose | ||
| – 0.25 | Win | Win | + 0.25 | Win | Win |
| Draw | Half lose | Draw | Half win | ||
| Lose | Lose | Lose | Lose | ||
| – 0.50 | Win | Win | + 0.50 | Win | Win |
| Draw | Lose | Draw | Win | ||
| Lose | Lose | Lose | Lose | ||
| – 0.75 | Win by 2+ | Win | + 0.75 | Win | Win |
| Win by 1 | Half win | Draw | Win | ||
| Draw | Lose | Lose by 1 | Half lose | ||
| Lose | Lose | Lose by 2+ | Lose |
Asian Total Goals
Here are a few examples of Asian total goals bets:
- Asian Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
- Over 2.5 Goals: If you bet on “Over 2.5 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored in the match is three or more.
- Under 2.5 Goals: If you bet on “Under 2.5 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored is two or fewer.
- Asian Over/Under 3 Goals:
- Over 3 Goals: If you bet on “Over 3 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored is four or more.
- Under 3 Goals: If you bet on “Under 3 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored is three or fewer.
- Exactly 3 Goals: This will be a push ( full refund)
- Asian Over/Under 2 Goals:
- Over 2 Goals: If you bet on “Over 2 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored is three or more.
- Under 2 Goals: If you bet on “Under 2 goals,” you’ll win if the total number of goals scored is two or fewer.
- Exactly 2 Goals: This will be a push ( full refund)
- Asian Over/Under 2.25 Goals:
- This is a slightly more complex bet that combines two different bets: half your stake goes on Over 2.5 goals and half your stake goes on Under 2.5 goals.
- If the match ends with exactly 2 goals, you’ll get half of your stake back and win half of your stake.
- Asian Over/Under 1.75 Goals:
- Similar to the previous example, half your stake goes on Over 2 goals and half your stake goes on Over 1.5 goals.
- If the match ends with exactly 2 goals, you’ll win half of your stake.
These are just a few examples of Asian total goals bets. The concept of Asian handicaps can seem a bit complex at first, but they offer a unique way to bet on football matches by adjusting the odds to provide more balanced opportunities for both sides.
Asian Corners
- Asian Corners 9.0:
- If you bet on “Over 9.0 corners,” you win if the total number of corners in the match is 10 or more. If there are 9 corners exactly, your bet is refunded (push).
- If you bet on “Under 9.0 corners,” you win if the total number of corners in the match is 8 or fewer. If there are 9 corners exactly, your bet is refunded (push).
- Asian Corners 10.5:
- If you bet on “Over 10.5 corners,” you win if the total number of corners in the match is 11 or more. If there are 10 corners exactly, your bet is a loss.
- If you bet on “Under 10.5 corners,” you win if the total number of corners in the match is 10 or fewer. If there are 10 corners exactly, your bet is a win.
General rule with a corner line of a whole number, if the total number of corners is the same as the corner line, your stake is returned.
Keep in mind that the exact rules and outcomes might vary slightly depending on the sportsbook and the match in question.
First-half goal betting is a type of sports betting where you wager on the total number of goals scored in the first half of a football match. This type of bet is popular among sports bettors who want a faster result, as it only considers the goals scored in the opening 45 minutes of the game, excluding any goals scored in the second half or during extra time (if applicable). The most common options for first-half goal betting are:
- Over 0.5 Goals: This means you are betting that at least one goal will be scored in the first half. If there is at least one goal scored, your bet is a winner.
- Over 1.5 Goals: This means you are betting that at least two goals will be scored in the first half. If two or more goals are scored, your bet is a winner.
- Over 2.5 Goals: This means you are betting that at least three goals will be scored in the first half. If three or more goals are scored, your bet is a winner.
- Under X Goals: This means you are betting that the total number of goals scored in the first half will be less than the specified number (e.g., Under 1.5 goals means you win if 0 or 1 goal is scored in the first half).
The first half goal strategy will be based on researched fixtures which have a high probability of having a first half goal. With these fixtures the odds will be quite low, ranging from 1.2 to 1.6 hence backing at these prices will not yield a decent profit. One strategy is to let the game begin and wait for odds to increase to 2.0 and then place a bet. This all depends on your availability and this strategy may not fit with you day to day to life
An alternative strategy is ‘Set and Forget’ where you can place trades at the odds you choose on Betfair Exchange, e.g. 2.0. When the game starts and the score is 0-0 after 20-30 minutes, the odd will increase from its original odds of 1.2 to 2.0 and the bet will be come active.